Lens 1 absorption ratio · 36 markets
Class I — Robust
Class II — Fragile
Class III — Pre-Failure Risk
Class IV — Currently Failing
Lens 1 ratio = displacement velocity divided by absorption capacity. Higher = worse. Dashed orange lines mark the corridor cut-offs: C1 below 1.20; C2 between 1.20 and 2.80; C3 above 2.80. The 1.20 cut sits inside an empirically empty band — countries cluster either below 1.10 (the Nordics) or above 1.59 (everyone else). The 2.80 cut is anchored on the displaced-worker scarring literature (Autor 2024; El-Sahli & Upward 2017).